After drawing 1-1 at El Madrigal two weeks in the past, Villareal and Juventus will meet in Northern Italy for the second leg of their Champions League Round of 16 fixture Wednesday at 4 p.m. ET. Bookmakers have put in Juve as -180 favorites to advance, with Villareal coming again at +146.
In phrases of dimension, stature and wealth, Juventus dwarfs Villareal. But the soccer panorama has shifted a bit in Europe over the previous two years, and Juventus (together with different Italian sides) have slipped nearer to the chasing pack whereas hungry, up-and-coming sides like Villareal are champing on the bit for a shot at glory.
The fact is that there actually isn’t that a lot that separates these two sides in present kind. You might make a stable argument that Villareal bossed the primary leg of this fixture and had been unfortunate to not head to Turin with a lead. The anticipated targets — which ended 1.1 to 0.5 in favor of Villareal — again up that notion.
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Since that match, Juventus have received 4 matches on the spin by a mixed rating of 8-3, however the high quality of competitors in these contests leaves rather a lot to be desired. That’s been a little bit of a theme for Juve this season as they’ve finished very nicely in opposition to the also-rans in Italy however have only one win, three losses and 5 attracts in opposition to Italy’s top-six sides throughout all competitions.
Villareal, in the meantime, have been persistently trending up for fairly a while and are 9-2-2 with a +23 aim differential and +18.1 anticipated aim differential over their final 13 matches in La Liga. As with most Unai Emery sides, a robust protection has been the calling card for the Yellow Submarine, which has allowed simply 9 targets of their final 13 home matches and have held their final 4 opponents (together with Juve) underneath 1.0 anticipated targets.
Even with Juventus enjoying at residence, I view this match near a coin flip – and I’m not alone. The Action Network’s BJ Cunningham initiatives this match near a decide’em, whereas FiveThirtyEight’s soccer model provides Villareal a 58% probability of progressing by way of to the quarterfinals.
I feel Villareal is playable throughout the board. Whether you wish to guess the +300 on the three-way moneyline (which means they’d must win the match in 90 minutes, if it goes to extra-time it’s a loss) or the +146 to advance, there may be loads of worth to go round on the Yellow Submarine.
The post Champions League bets: Villareal hungry for upset over Juventus first appeared on Umorr.
