Putin thought Ukraine war would be over in 100 hours – but it’s 100 days and counting and will last for generations

BRUTAL Russian leader Vladimir Putin intended the invasion of Ukraine to be a 100-hour war.

But yesterday we passed the grim milestone of 100 days — and we’re still counting.

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Putin wanted to recreate the first Gulf War — Desert Storm — when Western forces defeated Iraq in only 100 hours.

That operation, which saw US President George Bush Snr drive Saddam Hussein out of neighbouring Kuwait in three-and-a-half days, went down in military history.

I am convinced the idea of a 100-hour war appealed to Putin’s vanity.

His idea was to invade next-door neighbour Ukraine on February 24 and grab control so quickly that nobody would react.

But after 100 days of bloodshed, Putin’s “master stroke” plan is in tatters.

Because Ukraine has refused to roll over, Russia is reacting like all playground bullies.

Putin is now trying to frighten the West into leaning on Kyiv to give in.

First he tried to put the frighteners on us by threatening the use of nuclear weapons to spark a global war.

Because no one took his nuclear threat seriously, he then tried moral blackmail over food.

He claims the war in Ukraine has created a food crisis because grain shipments have been halted and Nato is to blame.

Putin is telling the West that people will starve unless we find a way of persuading Ukraine to end the war. It is complete rubbish.

In the last ten days he has tried another tactic. Now he is trying to frighten the Allies into telling Kyiv what to do by warning that Russia is prepared for a long war

He is saying: “Don’t think this will be over quickly. All the disruption the war is causing to oil prices, energy, world food, will go on for a long time because we are not going to give up.”

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There are worrying signs that Western politicians are now saying we are not sure if we want to live with all of this danger and disruption for the indefinite future.

The idea that the Ukraine conflict is not going to be over quickly is beginning to needle them.

Britain, America, Canada, the Baltic states and Poland, along with the Dutch and Danes, are the strong powers that want to ensure this war does not defeat Ukraine, where the Western world’s view of what is right and legal finally prevails.

Then there is Germany, with its unique problem of dependence on Russian gas, turning itself inside out over what to do.

It talks tough and agrees to give the Ukrainians some vital weapons, but then the government just sits on the commitment, refusing to sign it off.

We have a German Chancellor who is extremely cautious, to the point that he seems to be frightened of making a clear decision.

Meanwhile France, as always, is trying to play its own diplomatic game with Russia.

Then you have the outright appeasers — Hungary’s President Viktor Orban admires Putin and is not troubled by what the Russians are doing right next door in Ukraine.

Putin’s playground bully strategy

Orban leads the kind of group of weak states — the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Greece, and Cyprus — who want to water down sanctions that everybody else agrees to because of their own dependence on Russia.

Turkey is the joker in the pack. President Erdogan has been very helpful to the allies by providing Bayraktar drones, which are extremely effective at keeping the Bosporus Straits clear of any more warships.

This in turn stops the Russians reinforcing in the Black Sea.

But he is playing his own games over Nato enlargement with Finland and Sweden.

Sanctions on Russian oil announced by the EU this week have been watered down, so instead of freezing Putin out we are giving him little chinks in our collective front that he can wheedle away at.

His playground bully strategy is that if the conflict lasts long enough, he can work on these chinks to create some big gaps in Western unity that will maybe get him off the hook.

I am very encouraged that the Americans announced $40billion of aid — a ten-fold increase — which shows the world and the Russians that the US is in this for the long term, at least the next two years or so.

They are sending M142 multiple-launch rocket systems which may be a game-changer, but they won’t arrive for around two months.

So the Ukrainians have to hold out until then and I believe they can.

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They may lose territory in doing it, but they won’t crack. As the year goes on they will become stronger.

So Putin’s only strategy now is a quick win in the Donbas, then maybe to offer some sort of ceasefire deal to pressure Germany, Italy and Hungary and maybe France to lean on Kyiv to agree to it.

That would be simple appeasement and a terrible mistake.

Because no one anywhere in the Western world believes Putin is finished with Ukraine. He will just bide his time and attack it again when he has another opportunity.

The Western democracies have to finish this now with Putin. And for Ukraine, the depressing reality is that even then, the next generation might still have to face an on-off war that could last most of their adult lifetimes.

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