THE biggest blitz of Putin’s bloodbath can only end with stalemate or a crushing defeat for Russia.
But victory for Ukraine in the Battle for Donbas will come at a terrible cost for this courageous country.
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The Kremlin’s dreaded second-wave onslaught started with a devastating rocket, tank and artillery bombardment along 300 miles of the front line.
It is part of a three-pronged Russian assault to annihilate Ukraine’s most battle-hardened soldiers, who have been fighting there since 2014.
If the Ukrainians succeed in punching holes in the front line, we could see the biggest tank battles since the end of World War Two.
At the same time, Russian columns are charging south from Belgorod, on Russian soil, to try to encircle Ukrainian troops from behind.
Their plan is to link up with forces moving north from near Mariupol, where they have been bogged down for weeks in a siege, thanks to Ukraine’s heroic defence.
You may wonder why all this effort for Donbas, a poor, coal-mining wasteland in the far east of Ukraine?
Two-faced tyrant Putin claims the “main goal” of his onslaught is to liberate Donbas from a Nazi government in Ukraine capital Kyiv.
The truth is Putin’s eve-of-war rant made clear he wanted all of Ukraine.
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We have known for weeks now that he expected Kyiv to fall in as little as 72 hours, with the rest of the country following soon after.
But his invasion plans were scotched by Ukraine’s fierce resistance and terrible Russian logistics.
When Putin’s troops were forced to retreat, the Kremlin reduced its ambitions.
Parts of the Donbas region — Donetsk and Luhansk — are controlled by separatists.
Three days before Putin’s bloodbath invasion, the tyrant officially recognised the two self-proclaimed “people’s republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk. And their puppet leaders immediately begged him to send in troops to protect them.
Now Putin is trying to seize the parts of Donbas not already in Russian control.
It is a massively scaled-down objective to try to give Mad Vlad something to show that his slaughter was worth it. And he wants it by May 9 — less than three weeks away — in time for Russia’s annual Victory Day Parade.
Some conditions in Donbas will favour Russian troops. The terrain is far more open, with fewer hills, narrow gorges and forests that have favoured Ukraine’s guerrilla-style tactics.
Russia has more troops, more tanks, fast jets and newer military equipment than the Ukrainians. And they have a new general in charge. Ruthless Syria veteran General Alexander Dvornikov was parachuted in to try to co-ordinate operations and avoid the chaos that was seen north of Kyiv.
Yet Ukraine’s army also has plenty in its favour. Their positions in the Donbas region are the best defended in the country, because they have been fighting there for eight years. The terrain may be open, but it is also soft and muddy.
MORALE IS HIGH
Tanks and trucks will get stuck unless they keep to the roads, which is what Russian troops did near Kyiv. That leaves them open to ambushes and prevents them from bringing their full force to bear.
Ukrainian troops in Donbas are battle-hardened and fiercely motivated. Morale is also high.
They are fighting for their homeland and will contest for every inch. Not only have they lasted longer than most ever dared imagine, they have inflicted crippling losses on Russian units, which have then struggled to regroup.
Conversely, Russian morale is at rock bottom. There are problems with command and control. Some troops have refused to fight, according to Western officials, while up to one in three units was deemed “no-longer combat effective” after the rout from Kyiv
According to US officials, there are 76 Russian Battalion Tactical Groups fighting in the Donbas, including at least 11 that have arrived in the past few days.
These are battle-weary soldiers thrust from one defeat to another front line mixed with fresh recruits and conscripts.
Pressure from the Kremlin to get results by Victory Day has seen Russia attack before it is ready.
It has overstretched its supply lines and it is already getting harassed by successful Ukrainian counter-attacks east of Kharkiv and around Izyum.
And Ukraine has one thing in great supply that Putin can only dream of: Allies.
The flow of more and better weapons is still not enough. But British NLAW anti-tank weapons and US Javelin missiles have stopped Russian tanks in their tracks.
SHOCKING LOSSES
Ukraine’s own Neptune missiles sank the Black Sea flagship Moskva. Britain has vowed to send more anti-ship weapons.
The arrival of Starstreak anti-aircraft missiles — the fastest in the world — will strike fear into poorly trained pilots who have already suffered shocking losses.
The risk for Ukraine is that as Russia stalls, it will resort to more ruthless tactics.
More rocket and shell bombardments, as we have seen in the past few days. More long-range missile strikes. More bunker-busting bombs. More civilian casualties. More rapes, murders, war crimes, atrocities.
Even if Putin somehow succeeds in Donbas, his troops will face an insurgency and a bloody, grinding stalemate.
If his troops perform like they did around Kyiv — cruel and incompetent — then victory will be Ukraine’s.
“We will fight,” President Zelensky vowed. “We will defend ourselves.
