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Two different forecasts for next week (Continued…)
Explaining what the forecast models are showing, Aiden McGivern says: “We don’t just run the computer model once we run it 50 times we make subtle changes at the start of the forecast to see how much those changes escalate into bigger differences in the future. Sometimes they really escalate into bigger difference, sometimes they don’t so much. So it gives us a measure of how uncertain the forecast is.
“For next week, there are two camps basically – one really quite cold and one, much milder. It’s the milder ones that a moment is supported by more computer model runs, and as a result, it looks more likely.
“So, the most likely scenario for next week is that after a cold snap at the start of the week, it then turns milder once again, with a return to wind and rain from the Atlantic. But as that clashes with the cold air, there is always the chance of a brief spell of snow on the leading edge especially over hills around central parts of the UK
“But you wouldn’t discount the less likely outcome. It’s still possible that it will turn even colder through next week staying mostly dry because of the influence of high pressure to the east, but with snow flurries likely especially around eastern and southern coasts. That’s less likely, but not impossible.”
