CHINA’s military planners are mulling a range of options to take Taiwan – including strangling the island with a blockade and a lightning 48-hour blitz, analysts believe.
The most alarming scenario involves a huge land, sea and air assault to complete the invasion within two days – which is how long it calculates it would take the West to respond.
China began menacing live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait on Thursday[/caption]
Invasion fears are high after China surrounded Taiwan with masses of military equipment taking part in menacing war games.
They are meant as a show of force to US – but also to wear down Taiwan’s defensive strength and test the West’s resolve, observers say.
Whether US-led allies would rush to help Taiwan – and how quickly – is said to be the key consideration for strategists in Beijing.
Four possible scenarios under discussion include plans for missile strikes and land grabs that stop short of a full invasion.
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These would heap pressure on Taiwan and test whether Joe Biden really has a stomach for war after his promises to defend the island.
And if China does decide to take Taiwan, it could aim to complete “a lightning-fast 48-hour offensive” that leave the West scrambling to respond, diplomatic sources told The Sunday Telegraph.
It’s thought the crucial window of time to act has been deduced from Russia’s failure to take Kyiv and topple Volodymyr Zelensky’s government.
The report said Beijing closely watched events in Ukraine and noted it took Western leaders two days to respond to President Vladimir Putin’s attack on February 24.
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Diplomatic sources say President Xi believes “significant” Western support could have been handed to Ukraine during this time and doesn’t want to give the same opportunity to Taiwan.
Beijing has been ramping up military drills near the island as fears of an imminent invasion swell.
Tensions between the two nations have hit boiling point in recent days, with China continuing to flex its military muscles by launching jets into Taiwan‘s airspace and firing missiles in haunting drills.
Beijing has essentially surrounded the island – which it regards as a breakaway province – with 68 jets and 13 warships, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defence has said.
In recent days, more than 100 warplanes and ten warships have been at the centre of live-fire military drills around Taiwan.
China also issued a chilling warning to Taiwan by releasing footage of field hospital rehearsals – suggesting it is preparing for mass casualties.
The four scenarios could develop in sequence or in tandem depending on the West’s reaction, experts say.
The aim is to force Taiwan’s leaders to accept rule from Beijing while avoiding the outbreak of ware with the US.
BLOCKADE
The first scenario involves an ever-tightening squeeze on Taiwan which begins in a similar way to the current drills.
The island could be crippled financially, economically and operationally if Beijing extended military exercises for a longer period.
An effective sea and air blockade would halt valuable exports and cut off help from the US and Japan.
Although there would be international outcry, and more robust response is judged unlikely.
Meanwhile Chinese forces would be able to use exercises as cover to ready themselves in the best possible positions to launch attacks on Taiwan.
China launched its largest-ever military exercises around Taiwan on Thursday in a show of force straddling vital international shipping lanes.
Taiwan has been on high alert after China vowed “punishment” ion response to a visit by US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Polosi to the island this week – the first Speaker to visit in 25 years.
The war game drills began at 12 pm (0400 GMT) on Thursday and involved “live-firing”, according to Chinese state media.
Reports have emerged of small projectiles flying into the sky around Pingtan followed by plumes of white smoke and loud booming sounds.
ISLAND GRAB
Beijing has long held the view the smattering of small Fujian Province islands as part of its own territory.
Some sit less than six miles from China’s mainland, including Kinmen, a chain of islands just east off the coast of Xiamen city in China, and Matsu Islands, northwest of Taiwan.
At little cost, China could seize all or some of the islands, which are home to about 20,000 people, to gauge a reaction from the West.
The US-Taiwan Relations Act regards these islands as part of Taiwan so Washington may feel forced to intervene.
But strategists judge that Biden might not want to risk all-out war over such small islands.
And any response short of military support would embolden Xi to go further – like Putin annexing Crimea in 2014.
AIR BLITZ
China has already sent dozens of warplanes into Taiwan’s airspace as it continues to flex its military muscles.
Communist forces sent the fighter jets hurtling across the “median line” running down the Taiwan Strait on Thursday, according to the defence ministry in Taipei.
And they fired a barrage of ballistic missiles over the island in a menacing display of firepower.
Beijing could choose limited punitive attacks using missiles and jets to weaken Taiwan by targeting coastal defences, radar sites and airfields, analysts say.
It’s thought major population centres would be avoided – at least at first – in hopes of tipping Taiwan to the negotiating table without provoking a reaction from the West.
ALL-OUT OFFENSIVE
China could launch a massive assault on Taiwan that could be even more devastating than Russia’s attack on Ukraine, experts warned.
In the event of a wide-scale assault, China would aim to deploy troops at strategic points across the 70-mile Taiwan Strait.
Panic would be felt across the nation in the event cyber-warfare was employed if Taiwan’s communications would be disrupted.
Hypersonic missiles such as the DF-17 could be used, it claimed, to hit “moving targets at sea”.
Military analysts fear high tech swarms of drones, up to one million soldiers, warships and bombers could all be sent into action.
At sea, the Chinese surface fleet and submarines would seek to destroy Taiwan’s navy and any fast-attack craft that may try to halt the advancing troop carriers or lay mines in strategic landing sites.
The Chinese navy would also act as a screen to the north and east, cutting off any potential reinforcements from Japan or the US.
The goal would be to overwhelm Taiwan’s defences as quickly as possible and shatter the people’s will to resist.
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An international response is more or less guaranteed.
But if they can seize the island within the two day window, it will then be too late for the West to stop them, Beijing planners are said to believe.
